Apart from the developments in the Euro zone, which continue to cast a shadow over the stock market, there could be trouble from the liquidity situation, in the face of retail banking deposit growth slowing and lending picking up.
The aggregate deposit growth rate has slowed from 20.4 per cent in December 2008 to 18 per cent in December 2009. During the same period, the growth rate of gross bank credit increased significantly from 15.9 per cent to 18.3 per cent.
Deposit rates
Banks will have to take a view on hiking their deposit rates in the near-term. With inflation on the higher side, a negative yield on deposits is not something the depositor is going to take for long. This will impact credit growth in the future and with the Reserve Bank of India hiking repo and reverse repo rates by 25 basis points, liquidity is bound to become slightly tighter.
Banks are waiting for stronger signs of credit off-take before focusing on raising deposits or interest rates, said Mr Suman Chowdhury, Head, Crisil Ratings.
Other segments
Barring infrastructure, telecom and real estate, the credit appetite from other segments is sluggish. This could prove a dampener for banks to immediately raise the deposit rates as they would be saddled with liquidity. The lower growth rate in deposits is indicative of the perception about lower returns as well as the availability of alternative avenues for investment.
Bankers feel the runaway inflation has eaten into the surplus in the hands of the common man, which is reflected in banks' deposit accretion. Apart from this, high networth individuals appear to be looking for better returns and opting for investment in real estate and gold ETFs. In the last one year, gold ETFs have logged 114-per-cent growth.
Market experts say the NCDs issued by Shriram Transport and L&T received a good response from retail bankers. Monthly income plans of mutual funds too are in favour. As for institutional investors, they are pouring money into debt funds.
Trade deficit
Another worry for the economy could be the steadily rising trade deficit. The economy will be back on track only if imports are handled well. Exports need to grow at a much faster pace than the existing 35 per cent. Bank deposit growth slackens
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